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The 2026 MLB All-Star Game may have been the last we see for quite a while — and, unfortunately for baseball fans, that is not hyperbole.
The clock has been ticking for a while, but now, an impending MLB work stoppage is upon us. The current collective bargaining agreement expires on Dec. 1, and even this one took numerous leaps and hurdles to reach an agreement.
The 2022 season was delayed due to an owners' lockout after the expiration of the previous CBA the prior December. However, the sentiment at the time among baseball experts was, if you thought that was bad, wait until 2026.
Well, 2026 is here, and they weren't kidding.
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In the days of the largest contracts in the history of the sport, baseball has reached an impasse of large-market teams taking over players, dollars and — in more recent years — titles, while small-market teams are being left out to dry more than ever.
The history of every ripple effect stretches back to even before Marvin Miller ever held a baseball, but the writing for these contentious talks has been on the wall since the negotiations five years ago.
And with baseball potentially seeing a fourth straight year of increased attendance for the first time since 2004 to 2007, the game cannot afford any missed opportunities that will deter the fans away from the diamond.
So, here is everything to know about the negotiations, what each side wants, and what could happen as the negotiations play out.
One side would argue this is all the Los Angeles Dodgers' fault. They signed Shohei Ohtani to a $700 million contract ahead of the 2024 season, which was the first contract in baseball to surpass even $500 million, and 98% of that deal is deferred until after the contract is up. In total, the Dodgers' current AAV payroll is over $440 million, a far cry from the Miami Marlins' $81 million, all while dozens of millions are deferred.
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In this world of insane contracts, only a handful of teams are constantly in the conversation to sign star free agents. The Dodgers and New York Yankees have always been in it, and the New York Mets have recently joined the fray thanks to Steve Cohen, who signed Juan Soto to a $765 million contract. Other teams are sometimes in the mix, but it's normally unrealistic to consider them true threats for those types of megadeals.
The other side, however, may blame the small-market teams, who have multi-billionaire owners, but their payrolls are just a fraction of that. The bottom five payrolls in the league add up to just over $500 million, which is less than what the Dodgers will be spending post-luxury tax penalties.
Case in point, there are extremes on both sides — two teams don't even have payrolls of nine figures. The Marlins' payroll is actually roughly half of what it used to be in 2017, despite a sale of the team and everyone in the league making more money than ever. The Dodgers have already committed more money in 2030 than 12 teams have this season.
The league wants a salary cap, and not much is going to get in its way.
"I have an ownership group that is more united than any group in my entire time in baseball," MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said on Tuesday ahead of the All-Star Game.
Manfred added that owners are simply "listening to our fans" regarding a salary cap and said it "defies human experience ... to think that the bottom end of that [payroll] gap has the same opportunity to win the top end." The owners are even willing to split their local television rights deal if there is a cap.
"What our fans in a number of our markets are telling us, better than half of them, is there's a lack of competitive balance in the game. And everything we propose is directed at addressing that fan concern," Manfred said. "I believe that in order for this game to reach its full potential, we need to continue to address concerns that our fans have, particularly concerns that go to the core of what we're about — that is, competitive balance. We need to make sure that fans in markets at the beginning of the season have a realistic belief that their team has a chance to win.
"I think that we need a system where fans, particularly in smaller markets, can have some hope that the players that are signed and developed by their organizations can actually stay there through free agency. And honestly, I think we need a system where there is a more robust free-agent market. So, if you don't want to go to New York or Los Angeles, you have a realistic opportunity to get a viable free-agent contract."
The players, however, will not budge. A salary cap, which has never existed in the league, is a non-negotiable. They want the owners to spend a minimum and have no maximum.
"Salary cap is the ultimate excuse not to compete. It's the ultimate excuse for an owner to say, 'Gee, I would like to make the team better, but you know I can't,'" interim MLBPA executive director Bruce Meyer said Tuesday. "Salary caps are bad for fans. Salary caps prevent teams from doing the things that they believe are in their interest to make the team better."
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"Every team in baseball can afford to compete, many are choosing not to," Meyer added. "To me, that's the biggest problem right now."
Players want to, and owners are willing to let them, become free agents earlier. As of now, players are typically under team control for six years, barring service-time manipulation (more on that soon).
The first three years are pre-arbitration, meaning the players receive the league minimum each season. Then, in each of the following three seasons, the player and team essentially agree on one-year contracts, but those discussions can grow contentious.
Now, teams can turn those six years into almost a full seven. A famous example is Kris Bryant, who in 2015 was optioned to the minor leagues for less than two weeks in order for the Chicago Cubs to get almost an extra full season of control, prompting a lawsuit.
The current CBA tries to combat the tactic in that if a prospect starts the year on the Opening Day roster and wins certain major awards, i.e., Rookie of the Year, that team could receive draft picks. Also, if a player finishes in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, he would get a full season of service time no matter when he was called up. Pre-arbitration players can also make more money based on their in-season success.
But some teams are still willing to take the risk in an effort to hold onto their players longer. The players' wish to become free agents earlier, especially for those who don't hit free agency until after they are 30 years old, will certainly help their case.
MLB owners recently proposed a salary cap for the first time since 1994, and we all know how that went. They have also offered strict contract limits, capping the length of deals at six years at 16% of their proposed salary cap for players re-signing with clubs and five years at 15% for those who sign with different teams. That would be quite the major change, as there have been 29 contracts in MLB history totaling 10 years or longer, and it's been nearly 60 years since Al Kaline signed the first seven-year deal.
The players, on the other hand, recently offered a 28-man roster instead of the normal 26 for the first 15 days of the regular season to continue avoiding service-time manipulation.
If the long-held speculation is correct, the owners are likely going to lock out the players if a deal is not reached. As long as the players refuse a salary cap, the start of next season, at the very least, is in jeopardy.
Manfred, though, remains "an optimist."
"I truly believe that if people engage in the process, that you find ways through things," he said.
Baseball has not lost games since 1995, as the season had to be shortened by 18 games due to the players' strike that cost the 1994 postseason. But if neither side is willing to budge on essentially its top priority, unfortunate history could be made at a time when baseball is booming once again.
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