Ignore the favorites and back these longshots in the 2026 RBC Canadian Open at TPC Toronto this week

Because it's the week before another national open, the American one, the PGA TOUR's 2026 RBC Canadian Open at TPC Toronto has a stronger field this year than in previous seasons.

Featuring three Englishmen as the betting favorites, Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood, eight players in the top 20 of the Official World Golf Rankings are teeing it up at TPC Toronto as a tune-up for next week's U.S. Open.

Unfortunately, this semi-impressive field is lost on this cupcake course. Last year's Canadian Open was a birdie-fest and ball-knowers, aka golf course nerds, are dragging TPC Toronto, calling it lifeless and uninspiring.

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Speaking of "uninspiring," my golf betting season has been brutal. After going 0-for at the Memorial Tournament last week, my 2026 PGA TOUR balance is roughly -36 units (u). Thank God for the NBA playoffs, because I'm robbing Peter (NBA) to pay Paul (golf).

I crossed off everyone with betting odds below +3000 this week. TPC Toronto is just too easy, and the favorites' odds are too short based on their true win equity. Here are my best bets for our neighbor to the north's national open.

RBC Canadian Open 2026 Betting Card

The following odds are based on my previous bets on the golfers listed below. Subject to change.

🇺🇸 Brooks Koepka +3233 (0.62u) and Top-20 with ties +198 (1u), both at Kalshi. 

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Alex Fitzpatrick +4100 (0.49u) at DraftKings and Top-20 with ties +165 at Kalshi (0.75u). 

🇺🇸 Eric Cole +5713 (0.35u) and Top-20 with ties +207 (0.5u), both at Kalshi. 

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Harry Hall +6111 (0.33u) and Top-20 with ties +207 (0.5u), both at Kalshi.

🇿🇦 Aldrich Potgieter +9900 (0.2u) at Polymarket and Top-20 with ties +425 at Kalshi (0.25u)

Brooks Koepka

Koepka’s ball-striking is as good as ever lately; he just can’t hit a putt. With how easy TPC Toronto is tee-to-green (T2G), Brooks should get a lot of quality looks for birdie.

He is sixth on TOUR this season in Strokes Gained (SG): T2G, and fourth in SG: Approach. Again, Koepka cannot putt for s--t this year, but TPC Toronto has Bentgrass greens, and that’s his best putting surface.

More importantly, Brooks has six top-20 finishes in 10 starts this year, highlighted by a T13 at THE PLAYERS Championship and a T12 at The Masters. His ball-striking should keep him on the first two pages of the leaderboard, and Koepka’s top-20 with ties is a "plus-EV" look.

Given how badly I’m running in golf betting this season, I doubt Koepka will putt his way to a victory this weekend. Yet, Brooks will win again, and probably this year, and this is a great price considering he is the most accomplished golfer in the field.

Alex Fitzpatrick

Granted, Alex is probably dead this week because I’m betting him. However, this is a good number for Fitzpatrick, considering how well he is playing entering the Canadian Open.

Since getting his full-time TOUR card by winning the Zurich Classic team event with his brother, Matt, Alex has three top-10 finishes in five starts, including T9 at the Cadillac Championship, fourth at the Truist Championship and T6 at the Memorial Tournament. All of those are "signature events" with strong fields.

TPC Toronto is a driver-heavy course, and Fitzpatrick has gained strokes with his driver in all five starts on TOUR this year. He is first in both of the models I ran at Betsperts Golf. This season, Fitzpatrick ranks fourth in total driving, which accounts for distance and accuracy, and fourth in birdie-or-better rate (BoB%).

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Fitzpatrick isn’t popular in the betting market because he is Matt’s little brother. But Alex has game, and if he has a good weekend putting, he’ll be the second Fitzpatrick to win a regular PGA TOUR event this year. 

Eric Cole

This is another guy who has great lead-in form but isn’t getting respect in the betting market.

In five of his last six starts, Cole has finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open, T6 at the Zurich, T6 at the Myrtle Beach Classic, runner-up and lost in a playoff at the Charles Schwab Challenge and eighth in the Memorial last week.

He’s gained strokes across the board at Colonial Country Club (Charles Schwab) and Muirfield Village (the Memorial) in his last two starts, which are far tougher courses than TPC Toronto.

Over his last 24 rounds, Cole leads this field in BoB%, according to Betsperts Golf. Ultimately, I want raw scorers on my Canadian Open betting card because TPC Toronto was so easy last year.

Harry Hall

If you blended Koepka’s ball-striking with Hall’s putting, you’d have the perfect golfer. Hall has gained strokes on the greens in his three Canadian Opens. He finished T24 last year while picking up 3.74 strokes putting at TPC Toronto.

Although his T2G-game has been weak this season, he has popped in a few tournaments. Hall was T6 at the 2026 Sony Open, T9 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational (signature event) and T8 at the Truist.

Last week, he finished a respectable T29 at the Memorial and gained strokes with his irons and putter. Muirfield Village, host of the Memorial, is one of the toughest courses on TOUR. That said, if TPC Toronto plays easy T2G again this year, Hall can putt his way to victory. Or at least that’s my theory.

Aldrich Potgieter

This kid is just 22 years old and already has a win on TOUR, the 2025 Rocket Mortgage Classic, and has shown some form recently. Potgieter has made the cut in five of his last six starts, including four straight. He finished T35 at the 2026 PGA Championship in his last start and gained strokes across the board.

Also, three of the top-four finishes of the 2025 RBC Canadian Open are bombers and good putters: Ryan Fox (first), Sam Burns (runner-up) and Cameron Young (T4).

Potgieter drove and putted his way to a win last year and can do it again this week. He leads the TOUR in driving distance this season and has gained strokes putting in three of his last four outings.

Three of those tournaments were signature events, and the other was a major. Potgieter shouldn’t be higher than +6000 in this field, so I’m getting good value here. 

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2026 RBC Canadian Open 'One-and-Done' Pick: Alex Fitzpatrick

Mayo Cup season standings: 4,204th with $4,446,923

Since the only chance I have of making money in this league is to get hot with contrarian picks, I'm using Fitzpatrick here, who I don't expect to be overwhelmingly popular. Although I wouldn't be surprised, since no one wants to waste a good player for the Canadian Open.

Regardless, I've already used two of the top five betting favorites for the Canadian Open and Brooks for the Texas Children's Houston Open. So, I might as well try to get lucky with Alex and hope to gain ground in the standings if he wins this week.

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