Fox News Poll: A Senate battle looms in Michigan

In Michigan, while more Democrats than Republicans are concerned about their candidates’ ideological views, Democrats are also more engaged and enthusiastic about the upcoming election, setting up a battle in the Wolverine State.

After a heated Democratic primary, progressive Abdul El-Sayed secured the Senate nomination and will face Republican Mike Rogers this fall as Democrats try to retake the Senate.

According to a Fox News survey of Michigan registered voters, Rogers has the edge in the race with 51% to El-Sayed’s 47% — within the survey’s margin of sampling error.

Rogers’ edge comes mostly from greater party unity among Republicans. Nearly all Republicans (96%), including both MAGA (99%) and non-MAGA Republicans (89%), back Rogers. Only a week after winning the primary race, 9 in 10 Democrats (91%) and nearly all Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) supporters (98%) back El-Sayed, but that falls to 69% among non-DSA Democrats and independents. The small subgroup of independents narrowly favors Rogers.

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El-Sayed’s coalition includes liberal voters, Black voters, urban residents, and women with a college degree.

Rogers’ best groups are conservatives, White evangelical Christians, rural voters, and White men without a degree.

Men favor Rogers by 11 points (44% El-Sayed vs. 55% Rogers) while women are split (49-48%). 

President Donald Trump won the Wolverine State in 2016 and 2024, each time by less than 2 points, while former President Joe Biden won by nearly 3 points in 2020.

El-Sayed is underperforming with Black voters, women, and suburban voters compared with former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. Rogers similarly trails Trump’s 2024 support among voters under age 30 and independents. That’s according to the 2024 Michigan Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA).

Voter enthusiasm for their candidate is evident on both sides: about three-quarters of each candidate’s supporters are certain they will stick with their choice this fall, and about two-thirds say their support is mainly for their candidate rather than against his opponent.

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El-Sayed leads among the most engaged voters, with an 11-point advantage among those extremely interested in the election, a 7-point lead among those extremely motivated, and a 4-point edge among definite voters (10-out-of-10 likelihood).

Moreover, more Democrats than Republicans are extremely interested (+15 points), motivated to vote (+11), and certain they will cast a ballot this November (+7).

More than half the electorate is concerned El-Sayed’s positions on the issues are too extreme (54%) and that Rogers is too close to Trump (51%).

Voters on both sides of the aisle share concerns about their candidate’s ideological positioning. Twice as many Democrats are concerned El-Sayed is too extreme (30%) as Republicans are that Rogers is too close to Trump (14%). By a 10-point margin, more independents are concerned about Rogers’ ties to Trump than El-Sayed’s issue positions (58% vs. 48%).

Trump’s favorable rating is underwater by 19 points in Michigan (40% favorable, 59% unfavorable). Both Senate candidates also have negative ratings, with El-Sayed (-13 points) faring worse than Rogers (-6).

The two major political parties are viewed negatively. The Republican Party has a -12 net favorable rating while the Democratic Party is at -13.

"The energy is on the left in Michigan, as it is throughout the country, and that should help with turnout," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who helps conduct Fox News polls with Democrat Chris Anderson. "But El-Sayed’s nomination path highlighted party rifts. He needs to reassure a wide range of Michigan Democrats — including Reagan Democrats, Jewish voters, and Black voters — that he will serve their interests rather than pursue an extremist agenda."

The MAGA movement is viewed more favorably than the DSA by 10 points (40% vs. 30%), however, more voters have strongly unfavorable views of MAGA than DSA (45% vs. 37%).

Inflation is the top issue in the Michigan Senate race at 38%, and economic anxiety remains palpable, with 4 in 10 saying they are falling behind financially. Other voter priorities are immigration/border security and healthcare (14% each) and political divisions (11%).

El-Sayed stays competitive thanks to voters who prioritize inflation (+10 points), healthcare (+47), and political divisions (+5), while most immigration voters prefer Rogers (+82).

Those who say they are falling behind financially also back El-Sayed by 24 points.

By an 11-point margin, Michiganders oppose the U.S. continuing to provide military aid to the Israeli government (44% favor vs. 55% oppose). Those favoring aid back Rogers by 45 points while those opposed prefer El-Sayed by 29 points.

Turning to the governor’s race…

With Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer term-limited, Michigan’s gubernatorial seat is up for grabs.

The Fox News poll finds Democrat Jocelyn Benson has the advantage over Republican John James by 5 points in the governor’s contest (52% vs. 47%). The results fall within the survey’s margin of sampling error.

Compared with El-Sayed, Benson draws greater support among non-DSA Democrats and independents: 81% favor Benson in the governor’s race vs. 69% for El-Sayed in the Senate race.

There is some ticket-splitting, as Rogers’ backers are nearly three times as likely to cross over for Benson as El-Sayed supporters are to back James (14% vs. 5%).

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Overall, about 1 in 5 Benson supporters and 1 in 4 James supporters say they may still change their mind and back someone else.

Benson’s net personal favorable rating is +7 (49% favorable, 42% unfavorable), while James is at -3 (41% favorable, 44% unfavorable).

Conducted August 6-10, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,006 Michigan registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (103) and cellphones (654) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (249). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.