Democratic research finds voters prefer populism over ‘Abundance’

Populism is more electorally effective than the new “Abundance” agenda, a progressive think tank and Democratic operatives are arguing in a preview of the party’s messaging divisions ahead of next year's midterms.

A memo obtained first by POLITICO cautioned Democrats about relying solely on the emergent school of thought, which criticizes overly bureaucratic regulations for slowing progress on housing production needed to drive down costs and infrastructure projects. It was penned by Kamala Harris campaign veterans Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster, and strategist Brian Fallon, along with the liberal economic group Groundwork Action.

The strategists were joined by Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-Pa.) in briefing Capitol Hill staffers and Democratic operatives this week on polling and focus group data to substantiate their argument. The group is expected to present its findings again to congressional Democrats early next week, according to a person directly familiar with the schedule and granted anonymity to discuss private meetings.

“While there are elements of the Abundance agenda that have appeal, and the choice on which messages to deliver is not zero-sum, a populist economic approach better solves for Democrats’ challenges with working-class voters,” the memo read. “If candidates are asking which focus deserves topmost billing in Democrats' campaign messaging, the answer is clear: though some voters believe excessive bureaucracy can be a problem, it ranks far behind other concerns and tackling it does not strike voters as a direct response to the problem of affordability.”

It described affordability as voters’ primary concern, and posited they “see Abundance-style policy solutions as less responsive” to that problem.

The research — which tested populist-based messages versus the cutting-red-tape “Abundance” agenda — is among the first deep dives into the electoral potency of the movement, popularized by New York Times’ columnist Ezra Klein and writer Derek Thompson, who published a book by the same name last March.

It also comes as Democrats wrestle with how to move forward after sweeping losses in 2024, which underscored the party’s inability to focus on voters’ fiscal concerns. The battle over how to move forward with a unified economic message is still underway.

Progressives, led by Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas), have pushed economic populism, arguing that the party must rebuild its relationship with working-class voters by vilifying billionaires and corporate power. That’s more in line with what the memo argued will reach voters, as “majorities of Democrats and independents and two in five Republicans believe the outsized power of billionaires and corporations in our government is a bigger problem than red tape and bureaucracy.”

But other Democrats favor Klein's and Thompson’s diagnosis, which takes aim at bureaucratic inefficiencies and over regulation for stymieing growth on ambitious, Democrat-backed projects around housing, infrastructure and climate change. Pro-"Abundance" Democrats see it as an answer to the party’s eroding trust on delivering for voters, especially in blue cities and states, by failing to prove that the government can still execute effectively.

The book inspired a group of lawmakers to launch an “Abundance”-styled House caucus and Senate Democrats invited Klein to speak at a private gathering last spring. Former President Barack Obama listed “Abundance” as one of his 2025 summer reads and megadonor Reid Hoffman said in July that he’s sending fellow Democrats a copy of it.

Notably, the movement is hosting a conference in Washington, D.C., on Thursday and Friday, where Klein, Thompson and Utah Gov. Spencer Cox will be keynote speakers.

“All the noise around ‘Abundance’ is pretty loud, so it’s important for people to know that it’s not the only path forward for Democrats and to know what data looks like to back that up,” said a person who attended the briefing and granted anonymity to discuss a private event. “There’s data to back up a populist message.”

Klein, for his part, has said he expects Democrats to run on “on abundance, populist and anti-oligarchal themes,” and “the idea that someone is going to just pick one of these things is stupid.”

The memo insisted that populism and the “Abundance” movement aren’t incompatible. But it argued against leading with the latter in campaigns because “a populist message is focused on what voters think is the bigger problem with government today.” In a head-to-head test, nearly two-thirds of voters said government prioritizing billionaires and big corporations is a bigger problem than government moving too slowly and inefficiently, which 37 percent of voters cited as the bigger problem. By a two-to-one margin, voters preferred cracking down on price gouging to help affordability over cutting red tape and regulations.

“While an Abundance-style message and approach does advance some fresh ideas that challenge the status quo, there are significant questions about whether a focus on it in political messaging adequately meets the moment Democrats face today,” the memo added.

The presentation also included a video of “examples of populist framing,” featuring a campaign ad from Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego, a speech from Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff arguing that “corruption in America runs a lot deeper than Donald Trump,” and debate excerpts from Rep. Vincente Gonzalez, attacking grocers for “price gouging.”

Deluzio, who also spoke during the briefing, released a campaign video on Wednesday that wove in anti-billionaire messaging, accusing “corporate jagoffs” of trying to “buy our elections, ship jobs overseas, kill our local communities, all to get richer and richer.”

The survey, conducted by Garin’s firm Hart Research and paid for by Groundwork Action, also tested the Democratic Party’s popularity, which hovered at 39 percent overall — with 24 percent of Democrats disapproving of their own party. The Republican Party, with 43 percent overall approval rating, only had 16 percent of its own voters disapproving of it.

The national online poll surveyed 2,529 voters nationally in early August, as well as a pair of focus groups conducted in July with working class voters and suburban-exurban voters.

CLARIFICATION: This story has been updated to reflect the arm of Groundwork Action that is involved in this effort.