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The New York Knicks stole Game 1 of the 2026 NBA Finals by rallying back from a 14-point second-half deficit to beat the San Antonio Spurs 105-95 Monday.
San Antonio is a heavy favorite to even the series. At FanDuel, the Spurs have a -225 moneyline and are -6.5 (-106) favorites on a 215.5 total as of 12:45 p.m. ET Friday.
If I had to take a side, I’d take New York +6, down to +5. Since I gave out NYK to win the title (+170), and by at least 1.5 games (+270), before the 2026 NBA Finals started, I’m not betting San Antonio as a favorite in any game this series.
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What’s holding me back from taking the points with the Knicks is the profitable trend of betting the heavy home favorite in Game 2 after they lost the series opener. Usually, the home team rolls in Game 2.
Nevertheless, I decided to handicap the total, and I’m betting the UNDER 215.5 for Knicks-Spurs Game 2, down to +212, and here is why.
Look, I understand the logic behind betting the Over in Game 2. You’re zigzagging on the Game 1 result, which went way Under the 217.5 total with the Knicks winning 105-95. The "zigzag theory" is an old-school NBA playoff handicapping angle where you bet the opposite of what happened in the game before.
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Also, maybe both teams had the jitters in Game 1 and will shoot better in their second night in the same gym for Game 2. The series opener had a fast pace, and better shooting should help the Over Friday.
Yet, Game 1 going Under despite its fast pace has more to do with these teams playing championship-level defenses than shooting variance. There were 50+ points scored in just one of the four quarters Monday.
San Antonio forced Jalen Brunson into difficult shots. New York bigs Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson defended Victor Wembanyama well. These teams have elite defensive wings who played a big role in Brunson and Wemby shooting poorly in the series opener.
NYK wings Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart, a.k.a. Wingstop, lock down Spurs wing Stephon Castle and PG De’Aaron Fox. They swipe at the ball whenever Wembanyama tries to beat one of their teammates off the dribble. Castle and San Antonio forward Julian Champagnie trade possessions defending Brunson.
Plus, I see these games turning into "rock-fights" more than "shootouts" as this series progresses. While I cannot "coach my own bets," I can tell you that the Spurs are better off slowing these games down.
Their offense isn’t good enough to get into a shootout with the Knicks, who will be content to slow it down because they have a much better half-court offense.
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There won’t be a lot of "easy buckets" either. Both have low offensive turnover rates and high defensive rebounding rates, which should reduce the points off turnovers and second-chance points.
Finally, I’m waiting until closer to tip-off before locking in a bet on the Under. The total might go up further because the public likes to bet Overs, and most of the action comes in the hour before the game. This is one of the few NBA games where the public moves the number since it’s the finals and the Knicks are in it.
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